TMI for urban resilience : measuring and mapping long-term climate change effects on soil moisture

The effect of climate change on the shallow expansive foundation conditions of resident dwellings is costing several hundred billion dollars worldwide. The design and costs of constructing or repairing residential footings is greatly influenced by the degree of ground movement, which is driven by the magnitude of change in soil moisture. The impacts of climate change on urban infrastructure are expected to include accelerated degradation of materials and foundations of buildings and facilities, increased ground movement, changes in ground water affecting the chemical structure of foundations, and fatigue of structures from extreme storm events. Previous research found that residential houses that were built less than five years ago have suffered major cracks and other damage caused by slab movement after record rainfall. The Thornthwaite Moisture Index (TMI) categorises climate on the basis of rainfall, temperature, potential evapotranspiration and the water holding capacity of the soil. Originally TMI was mainly used to map soil moisture conditions for agriculture but soon became a method to predict pavement and foundation changes. Few researchers have developed TMI maps for Australia, but generally, their accuracy is low or unknown, and their use is limited. The aims of this paper are: (1) To produce accurate maps of TMI for the state of Victoria for 100 years (1913 to 2012) in 20 year periods using long-term historical climatic data and advanced spatial statistics methods in GIS, and (2) Analyse the spatial and temporal changes of TMI in Victoria. Preliminary results suggest that a better understanding of climate change through long-term TMI mapping can assist urban planning and guide construction regulations towards the development of cities which are more resilient.

The influence of climate change on Thorthwaite moisture index on the design of light structures

Significant long term changes in the earth’s climate have occurred in the past but recently there has been more severe climate fluctuation than have occurred in the past few centuries. The effect of this climate change on the foundation conditions of roads and low-rise buildings is costing several hundred billion dollars world-wide. A method which tracks this climate change will be of great value for companies and governments. C.W. Thornthwaite (1948) defined the Thornthwaite Moisture Index (TMI) as the first base for his climate classification system and mapping in the United States. There are 3 important factors to predict ground movement: (a) the degree of moisture index change (b) the depth at which this change occurs and (c) the foundation soil type. The water budget model was used by Thornthwaite (1948) to calculate the moisture index. This paper also discusses two typical examples of the use of this model. Originally TMI’s were mainly used to map soil moisture conditions for agriculture but soon became a method to predict environmental and pavement foundation changes.

Riparian reforestation: are there changes in soil carbon and soil microbial communities?

Reforestation of pastures in riparian zones has the potential to decrease nutrient runoff into waterways, provide both terrestrial and aquatic habitat, and help mitigate climate change by sequestering carbon (C). Soil microbes can play an important role in the soil C cycle, but are rarely investigated in studies on C sequestration. We surveyed a chronosequence (0-23years) of mixed-species plantings in riparian zones to investigate belowground (chemical and biological) responses to reforestation. For each planting, an adjacent pasture was surveyed to account for differences in soil type and land-use history among plantings. Two remnant woodlands were included in the survey as indicators of future potential of plantings. Both remnant woodlands had significantly higher soil organic C (SOC) content compared with their adjacent pastures. However, there was no clear trend in SOC content among plantings with time since reforestation. The substantial variability in SOC sequestration among plantings was possibly driven by differences in soil moisture among plantings and the inherent variability of SOC content among reference pastures adjacent to plantings. Soil microbial phospholipid fatty acids (PLFA, an indicator of microbial biomass) and activities of decomposition enzymes (β-glucosidase and polyphenol oxidase) did not show a clear trend with increasing planting age. Despite this, there were positive correlations between total SOC concentration and microbial indicators (total PLFA, fungal PLFA, bacterial PLFA and activities of decomposition enzymes) across all sites. The soil microbial community compositions (explored using PLFA markers) of older plantings were similar to those of remnant woodlands. There was a positive correlation between the soil carbon:nitrogen (C:N) and fungal:bacterial (F:B) ratios. These data indicate that in order to maximise SOC sequestration, we need to take into account not only C inputs, but the microbial processes that regulate SOC cycling as well.

The breeding biology of the White-faced Storm Petrel (Pelagodroma marina) on Mud Islands, Port Phillip Bay, Victoria

The White-faced Storm Petrel (Pelagodroma marina) is restricted to three breeding colonies within Victoria: Mud Islands and South Channel Fort in Port Phillip Bay, and Tullaberga Island off Mallacoota. Numbers of these storm petrels breeding on Mud Islands have declined considerably since early last century. White-faced Storm Petrels were recorded on Mud Islands from early September 2002 until mid-March 2003 when the last chicks fledged. Eggs were laid from late October to early December, with chicks hatching in the later half of December. The mean incubation period was 51.7 days (± 3.2 days (s.d.), range = 38–53, n = 13), and may have been extended by periods of egg neglect. The mean nestling period was 54.8 days (± 4.4 days (s.d.), range 50–70, n = 21). Chick growth is described. Hatching success was 54% and fledging success was 77.8%, with overall breeding success being 42%. Burrow densities were found to be influenced by plant species, vegetation height and soil moisture. The position of the burrow within the colony was shown to influence breeding success, with those nearer the edge of the storm petrel colony, closer to the marsh, and further from a colony of Australian White (Threskiornis molucca) and Straw-necked (T. spinicollis) Ibis recording higher success.

Flowering ecology of a Box-Ironbark Eucalyptus community

Box-Ironbark forests occur on the inland hills of the Great Dividing Range in Australia, from western Victoria to southern Queensland. These dry, open forests are characteristically dominated by Eucalyptus species such as Red Ironbark E. tricarpa, Mugga Ironbark E. sideroxylon and Grey Box E. microcarpa. Within these forests, several Eucalyptus species are a major source of nectar for the blossom-feeding birds and marsupials that form a distinctive component of the fauna. In Victoria, approximately 83% of the original pre - European forests of the Box-Ironbark region have been cleared, and the remaining fragmented forests have been heavily exploited for gold and timber. This exploitation has lead to a change in the structure of these forests, from one dominated by large 80-100 cm diameter, widely -spaced trees to mostly small (≥40 cm DBH), more densely - spaced trees. This thesis examines the flowering ecology of seven Eucalyptus species within a Box-Ironbark community. These species are characteristic of Victorian Box-Ironbark forests; River Red Gum E. camaldulensis, Yellow Gum E. leucoxylon, Red Stringybark E. macrorhyncha, Yellow Box E. melliodora, Grey Box E. microcarpa, Red Box E. polyanthemos and Red Ironbark E. tricarpa. Specifically, the topics examined in this thesis are: (1) the floral character traits of species, and the extent to which these traits can be associated with syndromes of bird or insect pollination; (2) the timing, frequency, duration, intensity, and synchrony of flowering of populations and individual trees; (3) the factors that may explain variation in flowering patterns of individual trees through examination of the relationships between flowering and tree-specific factors of individually marked trees; (4) the influence of tree size on the flowering patterns of individually marked trees, and (5) the spatial and temporal distribution of the floral resources of a dominant species, E. tricarpa. The results are discussed in relation to the evolutionary processes that may have lead to the flowering patterns, and the likely effects of these flowering patterns on blossom-feeding fauna of the Box-Ironbark region. Flowering observations were made for approximately 100 individually marked trees for each species (a total of 754 trees). The flower cover of each tree was assessed at a mean interval of 22 (+ 0.6) days for three years; 1997, 1998 and 1999. The seven species of eucalypt each had characteristic flowering seasons, the timing of which was similar each year. In particular, the timing of peak flowering intensity was consistent between years. Other spatial and temporal aspects of flowering patterns for each species, including the percentage of trees that flowered, frequency of flowering, intensity of flowering and duration of flowering, displayed significant variation between years, between forest stands (sites) and between individual trees within sites. All seven species displayed similar trends in flowering phenology over the study, such that 1997 was a relatively 'poor' flowering year, 1998 a 'good' year and 1999 an 'average' year in this study area. The floral character traits and flowering seasons of the seven Eucalyptus species suggest that each species has traits that can be broadly associated with particular pollinator types. Differences between species in floral traits were most apparent between 'summer' and 'winter' flowering species. Winter - flowering species displayed pollination syndromes associated with bird pollination and summer -flowering species displayed syndromes more associated with insect pollination. Winter - flowering E. tricarpa and E. leucoxylon flowers, for example, were significantly larger, and contained significantly greater volumes of nectar, than those of the summer flowering species, such as E. camaldulensis and E. melliodom. An examination of environmental and tree-specific factors was undertaken to investigate relationships between flowering patterns of individually marked trees of E. microcarpa and E. tricarpa and a range of measures that may influence the observed patterns. A positive association with tree-size was the most consistent explanatory variable for variation between trees in the frequency and intensity of flowering. Competition from near-neighbours, tree health and the number of shrubs within the canopy area were also explanatory variables. The relationship between tree size and flowering phenology was further examined by using the marked trees of all seven species, selected to represent five size-classes. Larger trees (≥40 cm DBH) flowered more frequently, more intensely, and for a greater duration than smaller trees. Larger trees provide more abundant floral resources than smaller trees because they have more flowers per unit area of canopy, they have larger canopies in which more flowers can be supported, and they provide a greater abundance of floral resources over the duration of the flowering season. Heterogeneity in the distribution of floral resources was further highlighted by the study of flowering patterns of E. tricarpa at several spatial and temporal scales. A total of approximately 5,500 trees of different size classes were sampled for flower cover along transects in major forest blocks at each of five sample dates. The abundance of flowers varied between forest blocks, between transects and among tree size - classes. Nectar volumes in flowers of E. tricarpa were sampled. The volume of nectar varied significantly among flowers, between trees, and between forest stands. Mean nectar volume per flower was similar on each sample date. The study of large numbers of individual trees for each of seven species was useful in obtaining quantitative data on flowering patterns of species' populations and individual trees. The timing of flowering for a species is likely to be a result of evolutionary selective forces tempered by environmental conditions. The seven species' populations showed a similar pattern in the frequency and intensity of flowering between years (e.g. 1998 was a 'good' year for most species) suggesting that there is some underlying environmental influence acting on these aspects of flowering. For individual trees, the timing of flowering may be influenced by tree-specific factors that affect the ability of each tree to access soil moisture and nutrients. In turn, local weather patterns, edaphic and biotic associations are likely to influence the available soil moisture. The relationships between the timing of flowering and environmental conditions are likely to be complex. There was no evidence that competition for pollinators has a strong selective influence on the timing of flowering. However, as there is year-round flowering in this community, particular types of pollinators may be differentiated along a temporal gradient (e.g. insects in summer, birds in winter). This type of differentiation may have resulted in the co-evolution of floral traits and pollinator types, with flowers displaying adaptations that match the morphologies and energy requirements of the most abundant pollinators in any particular season. Spatial variation in flowering patterns was evident at several levels. This is likely to occur because of variation in climate, weather patterns, soil types, degrees of disturbance and biotic associations, which vary across the Box-Ironbark region. There was no consistency among sites between years in flowering patterns suggesting that factors affecting flowering at this level are complex. Blossom-feeding animals are confronted with a highly spatially and temporally patchy resource. This patchiness has been increased with human exploitation of these forests leading to a much greater abundance of small trees and fewer large trees. Blossom-feeding birds are likely to respond to this variation in different ways, depending upon diet-breadth, mobility and morphological and behavioural characteristics. Future conservation of the blossom-feeding fauna of Box-Ironbark forests would benefit from the retention of a greater number of large trees, the protection and enhancement of existing remnants, and revegetation with key species, such as E. leucoxylon, E. microcarpa and E. tricarpa. The selective clearing of summer flowering species, which occur on the more fertile areas, may have negatively affected the year-round abundance and distribution of floral resources. The unpredictability of the spatial distribution of flowering patches within the region means that all remnants are likely to be important foraging areas in some years.

Physiology and biochemistry of budburst in Vitis vinifera

Both the physiological and biochemical control of budburst in the grapevine, Vitis Vinifera L. were investigated. It was found that the accuracy of a predictive model for grapevine budburst based on ambient temperature was limited under the experimental conditions. There was a significant correlation of 4.7 ± 0.3 days between the days of maximal xylem exudation and budburst over the 3 years of investigation. The co-relationships between daily xylem exudate volume and a range of environmental parameters were considered. It was found that soil temperature was highly correlated against daily xylem exudation. Ambient temperature and soil moisture were significantly correlated with xylem exudation, however the coefficients of correlation were much lower than that of soil temperature. Rainfall showed only a very limited correlation with daily xylem exudate flow. Seasonal variations in the pH and the carbohydrate and inorganic nutrient concentrations of xylem exudate were investigated. Exudate carbohydrate concentrations fell from 660 µM before the day of maximal xylem exudation to zero levels within 4 weeks. Xylem exudate pH was found to consistently fall to a minimum at the time of maximal exudate flow. Exudate concentrations of the metallic cofactors Ca, K, Mg, Mn and Zn varied directly with daily exudate flow, suggesting some sort of flow-dependent mobilisation of these nutrients. A growth promontory oligosaccharide fraction was prepared by partial acid hydrolysis of grapevine primary cell wall material. This fraction significantly increased control growth of the Lemna minor L. bioassay over a limited ‘window’ of bioactivity. A growth inhibitory oligosaccharide fraction, similar in activity to abscisic acid was isolated from grapevine xylem exudate prior to budburst. The exudate concentration or efficacy of this substance declined after budburst such that there was no apparent growth inhibition. A model is proposed for grapevine budburst whereby an oligosaccharide growth inhibitor is gradually removed from the xylematic stream under the effects of soil temperature, allowing the surge of metabolic activity and vegetative growth that constitute budburst.

Performances of rainfall-runoff models calibrated over single and continuous storm flow events

Accurate parameter estimation is important for reliable rainfall-runoff modeling. Previous studies emphasize that a sufficient length of continuous events is required for model calibration to overcome the effect of initial conditions. This paper investigates the feasibility of calibrating rainfall-runoff models over a number of limited storm flow events. For a subcatchment having a moderate influence from initial soil moisture conditions, this study shows that rainfall-runoff models could still be calibrated reliably over a set of representative events provided that the events cover a wide range of peak flow, total runoff volume, and initial soil moisture conditions. This approach could provide an alternative calibration strategy for a small watershed that has a limited data length but consists of runoff events with a wide range of magnitudes. Compared to continuous-event calibration, event-based calibration appears to perform better in simulating the overall shape of hydrograph, peak flow and time to peak. However, continuous-event calibration was found to be more reliable in providing runoff volume, suggesting that continuous-event calibration should still be used when runoff volume is the main concern of a study.

Mapping potential risk for housing damage from ground movement due to climate change

The performance of footings in residential construction is influenced by the degree of ground movement, particularly in reactive soils, which is driven by the magnitude of change in soil moisture. New patterns of climate are affecting residential foundations and causing serious and expensive damage. This paper produces a map of potential risk for housing damage from ground movement due to climate change. Using a geographic information system, it combines information on (1) soil moisture change related to climate, using TMI as the indicator, and (2) population growth. Preliminary results, having Victoria, Australia, in the last decade as the case study, suggest that effects of climate change on soil, and resulting impacts on house foundations, are not being taken into consideration in current planning strategies for urban development. Most of the urban growth priority zones in the study area are susceptible to medium and high risk for damage. Producing new and renovated buildings that are durable in the long term is essential for the economy, environment and social welfare. The map presented here can assist policies and strategies towards urban resilience in the context of climate change.

Conceptual design for fully autonomous aerial and ground system for precision agriculture

There are few regulatory restrictions involving the use of fully autonomous unmanned aerial systems in unpopulated, farming areas of Australia. The combination of a fully autonomous aerial and ground systems would provide efficient and cost effective retrieval of soil and vegetation data for use in precision agriculture. The aerial system will survey the site and collect spectral imagery to analyse plant density, stress and nutrition. The ground sensors will collect soil moisture content readings throughout the site. The data from both systems will be collated at a central base station. The base station will also provide housing and interface with the aerial system.

Mitigation of N₂O emissions from surface-irrigated cropping systems using water management and the nitrification inhibitor DMPP

Soils under irrigated agriculture are a significant source of nitrous oxide (N2O) owing to high inputs of nitrogen (N) fertiliser and water. This study investigated the potential for N2O mitigation by manipulating the soil moisture deficit through irrigation scheduling in combination with, and in comparison to, using the nitrification inhibitor, 3,4-dimethylpyrazole phosphate (DMPP). Lysimeter cores planted with wheat were fitted with automated chambers for continuous measurements of N2O fluxes. Treatments included conventional irrigation (CONV), reduced deficit irrigation (RED), CONV-DMPP and RED-DMPP. The total seasonal volume of irrigation water applied was constant for all treatments but the timing and quantity in individual irrigation applications varied among treatments. 15N-labelled urea was used to track the source of N2O emissions and plant N uptake. The majority of N2O emissions occurred immediately after irrigations began on 1 September 2014. Applying RED and DMPP individually slightly decreased N2O emissions but when applied in combination (RED-DMPP) the greatest reductions in N2O emissions were observed. There was no effect of treatments on plant N uptake, 15N recovery or yield possibly because the system was not N limited. Half of the plant N and 53% to 87% of N2O was derived from non-fertiliser sources in soil, highlighting the opportunity to further exploit this valuable N pool.

Scope for further analytical solutions for constant flux infiltration into a semi-infinite soil profile or redistribution in a finite soil profile.

We attempt to generate new solutions for the moisture content form of the one-dimensional Richards' [1931] equation using the Lisle [1992] equivalence mapping. This mapping is used as no more general set of transformations exists for mapping the one-dimensional Richards' equation into itself. Starting from a given solution, the mapping has the potential to generate an infinite number of new solutions for a series of nonlinear diffusivity and hydraulic conductivity functions. We first seek new analytical solutions satisfying Richards' equation subject to a constant flux surface boundary condition for a semi-infinite dry soil, starting with the Burgers model. The first iteration produces an existing solution, while subsequent iterations are shown to endlessly reproduce this same solution. Next, we briefly consider the problem of redistribution in a finite-length soil. In this case, Lisle's equivalence mapping is generalized to account for arbitrary initial conditions. As was the case for infiltration, however, it is found that new analytical solutions are not generated using the equivalence mapping, although existing solutions are recovered.

Geosynthetics in Antarctica: performance of a composite barrier system to contain hydrocarbon-contaminated soil after three years in the field

An overview of the design and performance of geosynthetics in composite barrier systems for biopiles used to remediate hydrocarbon-contaminated soil at Casey Station, Antarctica, is presented. Seven instrumented biopiles were constructed over three field seasons. To minimize the risk of hydrocarbon migration to groundwater, composite barrier systems were used (each using different combinations of geosynthetic clay liners (GCLs), high density polyethylene (HDPE) geomembranes (GMB), and geotextiles (GTXs)). One biopile used a co-extruded geomembrane (HDPE with an ethylene vinyl alcohol (EVOH) core). The liner system was subject to a combination of coupled phenomena that could interact and affect the GMB-GCL composite barrier performance. The exposure conditions involved potential freeze-thaw cycling, hydration-desiccation cycles, cation exchange, direct and diffusive exposure to hydrocarbons. The effect of these phenomena was investigated by monitoring GCL and GMB sacrificial coupons. GCL coupons were placed between the main GCL component and the main geomembrane component of the composite liner and GMB coupons placed between the main GMB sheet and the GTX protection layer. Coupons were exhumed from the biopiles each year. The exhumed GCL field moisture content values ranged from 162% to 22%. After three (3) years in the field, GCL coupons that had undergone at least one hydration/desiccation cycle showed no significant change in swell index values or fluid loss values. The measured hydraulic conductivity of exhumed GCL coupons from Biopiles 1 and 2 (3 × 10-11 m s-1) was within the expected range and not significantly different from the values for virgin GCL. GMB coupons exhumed after three years from Biopiles 1 and 2 showed no significant change in oxidative induction time (OIT), melt flow index or tensile properties. Diffusion tests were performed as an index test for establishing the performance of the GMBs as a diffusive barrier to hydrocarbons, with permeation parameters for BTEX contaminants ranging from P g = 0.9-9.2 × 10-13 m2 s-1 for the exhumed GMB (with values depending on the contaminant and GMB). These values were similar to the parameters obtained for virgin GMBs and there was no significant change with field exposure, with GMBs appearing to be performing well.